找回失落的参考群体:对“沉默的螺旋”进行多主体建模

Abstract

本文以双重意见气候作为研究沉默的螺旋的理论框架,采用多主体建模的方法,将参考群体重新引入对沉默的螺旋的研究当中,在此基础上重新考察了沉默的螺旋理论的边界条件,并分析了沉默的螺旋在不同的区域和时间中的差异。研究发现:在引进参考群体的情况下不能确保沉默的螺旋必然出现;沉默的螺旋效果是否能够稳定地出现要视大众媒体对其参考群体的影响力大小而定;另外,沉默的螺旋效果的大小依赖于参考群体规模以及社区总人口规模,其演化受个体的空间分布的影响,而其增长率随着时间递减。

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Abstract:The purpose of this study is threefold: first, to bring reference groups back into the framework of spiral of silence (SOS) by proposing an integrated framework of dual opinion climate; second, to investigate the boundary conditions of SOS; third, to identify the characteristics of SOS in terms of spatial variation and temporal evolution. Modeling SOS with agent-based models, the findings suggest that there is no guarantee of SOS with reference groups being brought back; the stable existence of SOS is contingent upon the comparative strength of mass media over reference groups; SOS is size-dependent upon reference groups and the population; the growth rate of SOS decreases over time. Thus, this research presents an extension of the SOS theory.
Key Words: spiral of silence; willingness to express; agent-based model; reference group; size-dependent